《JIE》| Hurmekoski et al：芬兰木材使用行业的结构变迁对净碳排放量的影响

摘要：森林及林业可以通过从大气中封存碳（即将其存储在生物质中），并制造可替代温室气体排放密集型材料和能源的产品，为缓解气候变化做出贡献。本研究旨在为实现木材产品市场的多样化寻找替代方案，并确定日益多样化的市场结构如何影响芬兰林业的净碳排放量。通过使用森林管理模拟和优化模型（主要针对森林和土壤）以及分离模型（针对森林产品的碳存储和替代效应），本文分析了2016-2056年间芬兰林业部门的净碳排放量。芬兰森林每年封存的碳约70兆m3，接近2016年工业和能源所需圆木的采伐量。结果表明，若以2016年的市场结构为参考情景，替代效益将达到9.6 Mt C（35.2 MtCO2当量）。若通过更改市场结构，效益将进一步增加7.1 Mt C（26 Mt CO2当量）。本研究的另一项关键产出，即与增加原木采伐量相比，增加副产品在纺织品和木塑复合材料中的使用，替代原来所应用的牛皮纸浆和生物燃料，总替代效益会更高。

关键词：生物经济学，碳排放，林产品，产业生态学，国家森林清单，替代

Abstract:  Forests and forest industries can contribute to climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, by storing it in biomass, and by fabricating products that substitute more greenhouse gas emission intensive materials and energy. The objectives of the study are to specify alternative scenarios for the diversification of wood product markets and to determine how an increasingly diversified market structure could impact the net carbon emissions (NCEs) of forestry in Finland. The NCEs of the Finnish forest sector were modelled for the period 2016–2056 by using a forest management simulation and optimization model for the standing forests and soil and separate models for product carbon storage and substitution impacts. The annual harvest was fixed at approximately 70 Mm3, which was close to the level of roundwood removals for industry and energy in 2016. The results show that the substitution benefits for a reference scenario with the 2016 market structure account for 9.6 Mt C (35.2 Mt CO2 equivalent [CO2 eq]) in 2056, which could be further increased by 7.1 Mt C (26 Mt CO2 eq) by altering the market structure. As a key outcome, increasing the use of by‐products for textiles and wood–plastic composites in place of kraft pulp and biofuel implies greater overall substitution credits compared to increasing the level of log harvest for construction.

《Journal of Industrial Ecology 》最新影响因子为9.50，发表关于环境科学、生态学以及环境经济学方面的研究。

原文链接：

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.12981

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